Disney CFO predicts (and we fact-check) impact of Epic Universe on Orlando parks: Analysis
Disney’s CFO is optimistic about Universal Epic Universe in Orlando benefitting Disney World across town. Does history support this outlook?
Updated Feb. 5, 2025; original version published Nov. 14, 2024.
Investor asks Disney executive about Epic Universe
Disney executives discussed the potential impact of Epic Universe on Disney Experiences on multiple quarterly earnings calls on Feb. 5, 2025 and Nov. 14, 2024, as well as during the company’s annual shareholders meeting on April 3, 2024.
Universal Epic Universe, a new theme park, will open May 22, 2025 at Universal Orlando, just a few miles from Walt Disney World.
During the Q&A portion of Disney’s Feb. 5 earnings call, an investor directed a question to Hugh Johnston, senior executive VP and CFO of The Walt Disney Company. The investor said:
I thought I would at least ask Hugh if you could comment on the outlook for [Disney] Experiences and parks in particular around the opening of Epic [Universe]. There’s probably no other question I get more than your ability to deliver on your guidance on the domestic parks front for the year. Any update there would be greatly appreciated.
Johnston responded:
Obviously, no change to the guide that we had previously provided. We had said Experiences would be up 6-8 on the year. The strong Q1 increases our level of confidence in the guide for sure. It’s obviously quite early, but we certainly feel good about the fact that we’re able power through with stronger performance than our expectations were for Q1. … In addition to that, we obviously have a lot going on in terms of our [Disney Treasure] ship coming on as of this quarter …
In addition to that, as we built our plans, we did anticipate some small impact. I think we have it effectively hedged in the guides that we’ve given you, so overall level of confidence in the Experiences guide is high.
Later in the call, Johnston said, “Bookings are up in the summer right now. Certainly the outlook is good in that regard.”
The guides Johnston mentioned refers in part to the supplemental earnings reports the company distributed to investors for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The former document lists Disney Experiences’ in-progress projects, including Villains Land at Magic Kingdom in Florida, the expansion of Avengers Campus at Disney California Adventure, and the upcoming “Lion King” log flume ride at Disney Adventure World in France, among others.
The Q1 2025 document included the following statement:
Our Q1 results for our Experiences segment demonstrated Disney’s strong and enduring appeal in family travel. We continue work on a robust slate of new projects as we bring our most popular IP to life in innovative ways and execute against a carefully designed and planned investment strategy. We also remain deliberate about pricing and the guest experience, and are focused on providing guests great value with a vast array of options to visit our theme parks.
Impact of new Universal attractions on Disney World
During the Q&A portion of the earnings call in November, a Disney investor asked:
I know you guys get this question every quarter, but give us an update on your view of the impact that the launch of Epic Universe is going to have. It looks like that’s going to hit early summer, just as you’re expecting an acceleration in the parks business. How do you expect that to impact the mid-year in that acceleration in [Disney] Experiences?
Johnston responded by saying:
Regarding Epic [Universe], we did model that in our expectations for the [Disney] Experiences outlook. As I mentioned earlier, the early bookings that we have next summer are actually positive, so that’s certainly a positive indicator. We also looked at the history of other attractions opening up and other parks opening up in Florida, and it’s generally been beneficial to us.
Let’s fact-check that claim.
Below, we take a look at Walt Disney World attendance during years when Universal Orlando opened new theme parks or major attractions.
The most recent theme park to open in Orlando was Universal Islands of Adventure in 1999. That year, 42.6 million people visited Walt Disney World, a record at the time, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Disney’s Animal Kingdom had also opened the year prior.
The original Universal Studios Florida park opened in 1990. That year, 33.7 million people visited Disney World, a record at that point, according to a 1994 story in the Orlando Sentinel. Disney-MGM Studios (now Disney’s Hollywood Studios) had also opened the year prior.
Therefore, there is no precedence in terms of the influence of a new Universal park on Walt Disney World attendance within this summer’s circumstances. 2025’s Epic Universe grand opening marks the first time a Universal Orlando theme park will debut without a new Disney World park having just opened the year before.
Though not a full-fledged theme park, The Wizarding World of Harry Potter – Hogsmeade opened in 2010 at Islands of Adventure. Compared to 2009, Disney World attendance in 2010 dropped at Magic Kingdom, Epcot, and Hollywood Studios, but rose at Animal Kingdom, according to a 2011 article in the Orlando Sentinel. When the next iteration, The Wizarding World of Harry Potter – Diagon Alley, opened in 2014 at Universal Studios Florida, attendance increased at all four Disney World theme parks, again according to the Sentinel’s report at the time.
In their respective parks at Universal Orlando, Hogsmeade’s opening prompted a 30.2% increase in attendance while Diagon Alley’s led to a 17% increase.
Epic Universe comments from Disney CEO Bob Iger, SeaWorld CEO Marc Swanson
Disney CEO Bob Iger was also present on Nov. 14’s earnings call, but did not address Epic Universe specifically — this time.
During Disney’s annual shareholders meeting on April 3, 2024, Iger had claimed Disney has “been aware of Universal’s plans” of Epic Universe for a decade, citing Walt Disney World’s recent additions such as Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Tron Lightcycle / Run as examples of Disney introducing “major launches … over time rather than having to do it all at once.”
Photo courtesy of Disney
At the time, Disney had not yet officially announced its long list of new projects revealed at D23: The Ultimate Disney Fan Event. At that convention in August 2024, Disney unveiled Villains Land for Magic Kingdom, a “Monsters, Inc.” doors roller coaster for Hollywood Studios, and other major attractions, many of which were reiterated at D23 Brazil in November 2024.
SeaWorld executives also addressed the arrival of Epic Universe on their company’s earnings call on Nov. 7, 2024.
“We welcome more people to town,” said Marc Swanson, CEO of United Parks & Resorts (the parent company of SeaWorld). “I’m sure there’s gonna be days when Epic [Universe] is doing very well and is crowded … We’re gonna feel that a little bit” in terms of potentially lower attendance at SeaWorld Orlando.
Still, the executive shared SeaWorld’s corporate viewpoint on new parks opening is mostly positive: “That’s going to be good for the market. … It will bring more people to the Orlando area.” At the same time, though, SeaWorld Orlando can’t sit idly on the sidelines and hope more guests will flock to its gates just because Epic Universe is open. “We need to execute on our plans to drive more people to our parks.” SeaWorld will debut an Arctic-themed flying theater simulator in spring 2025.
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volcano bay opened in 2017 and is universal’s 3rd park, with them introducing a 3-park ticket option for the first time. it was the same year that pandora opened at AK, so i’m sure it didn’t have much of an effect on disney, but still. reporting on diagon alley opening but not their water theme park seems incomplete.